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Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics (Frontiers of Economic Research), by George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja
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A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach.
Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
- Sales Rank: #1253152 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Princeton University Press
- Published on: 2001-02-01
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.21" h x 1.00" w x 6.14" l, 1.72 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 424 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
Review
"An excellent, wide ranging and detailed survey of what is known about the stability under learning of a wide variety of models. . . . [A]n essential reference for researchers."--Margaret Bray, Journal of Economics
From the Inside Flap
"This excellent book brings together and extends two decades of work on learning in self-referential equilibrium models in macroeconomics. The discussions presented by George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja are technically superb, well written, and well motivated in terms of content."--Thomas Sargent, Stanford University and Hoover Institution
"An important methodological and technical achievement that will set the standard against which all other macroeconomic learning analyses must be measured. Economists need to know how to analyze systems under the recursive learning assumption and what kind of results can be obtained. Evans and Honkapohja have fully worked out methods to analyze the resulting dynamics."--James Bullard, Assistant Vice President and Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
From the Back Cover
"This excellent book brings together and extends two decades of work on learning in self-referential equilibrium models in macroeconomics. The discussions presented by George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja are technically superb, well written, and well motivated in terms of content."--Thomas Sargent, Stanford University and Hoover Institution
"An important methodological and technical achievement that will set the standard against which all other macroeconomic learning analyses must be measured. Economists need to know how to analyze systems under the recursive learning assumption and what kind of results can be obtained. Evans and Honkapohja have fully worked out methods to analyze the resulting dynamics."--James Bullard, Assistant Vice President and Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Extremely useful
By Thomas E. Cone
A fantastic book that summarizes and advances the state of knowledge in learning in macroeconomics. The bulk of the treatment is on adaptive learning theory, but E&H also cover other approaches such as eductive learning. Learning is presented in the context of a good variety of macro models. I disagree with another reviewer who perceived a dearth of useful examples; the vast majority of the book is useful examples! As to the technical level, it is intended for researchers in this area or those who wish to become such, in other words, economists and economics PhD students. (Non-economists with a casual interest in this topic probably should start with more basic material.) Every macroeconomist whose research interests include economic agents’ belief formation would benefit from owning this very useful book.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
vey good book for learning as a starting stage
By Eszter Hirschberg
Very good book to start learning about "learning". However, the mathematical language is not convenient especially the mathematical appendix it is very hard to understand. Not many useful examples and applications. Concentrates too much on recursive and constant gain learning and does not examine other learning algorithms.
0 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
not so useful as I expected
By Joy Zhao
I did not use it frequently. Anyway, perhaps it is useful for other people. But, it is not so useful as I expected.
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